USD to CAD Chart: Live Rate, History & Forecast 2025-2026

Few things affect cross-border budgets quite like the USD/CAD exchange rate. With the current rate hovering around 1.3633 and a 2% decline over the past month, the Canadian dollar has shown unexpected strength. This article unpacks the forces behind the chart — from Bank of Canada rate decisions to Trump’s dollar policies — and offers a clear forecast for 2025-2026.

Current USD/CAD Rate: 1.3633 (as of latest data) · 24-Hour Change: +0.0023 (+0.17%) · 1-Month Change: -2.00% · 6-Month Change: -3.33%

Six data points that define the current USD/CAD landscape:

Is USD going up or down against CAD?

Current trend analysis

• USD has weakened 2% against CAD over the past month, with the Canadian dollar gaining 1.72% (Trading Economics (economic data provider)).
• Intraday bias remains neutral; further decline expected as long as 1.3709 resistance holds (ActionForex (technical analysis platform)).
• Bank of Canada rate cuts outpacing the Fed have narrowed the rate differential, pressuring the CAD (FXStreet (forex news)).

Technical indicators

RSI(14): 40.04 (Bearish) · 50-day SMA: 1.38 · 200-day SMA: 1.38

The 14-day Relative Strength Index sits at 40.04, firmly in bearish territory, and both the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages converge at 1.38 — a level that has acted as resistance. According to CoinCodex (crypto/forex forecast platform), the bearish sentiment is reinforced by the RSI reading.

Recent price movement

On April 28, 2026, USD/CAD reached 1.3684, up 0.42% on the day, but the monthly chart still shows a 2% decline (Trading Economics (economic data provider)). Daily pivot points from ActionForex (technical analysis platform) place resistance at 1.3658 and support at 1.3594, suggesting a narrow trading range.

The pattern: A break below 1.3549 would likely trigger a fall toward the 1.3480 low, while a move above 1.3709 could signal a short-term reversal.

What is the lowest the CAD has been to USD?

Historical low in 2002

• The Canadian dollar fell to an all-time low of 0.62 USD in January 2002, translating to a USD/CAD rate of approximately 1.62 (Trading Economics (economic data provider)).
• The collapse was driven by weak commodity prices — especially oil — and fiscal uncertainty in Canada (FXStreet (forex news)).
• At the time, the Bank of Canada was cutting rates while the US economy was recovering from the dot-com bust.

Comparison to current levels

The comparison below highlights just how far the Canadian dollar has come since 2002.

The gap between the 2002 abyss and today is enormous — the Canadian dollar is now 18% stronger. The recovery was fueled by rising oil prices and improved fiscal discipline. Why this matters: A repeat of the 2002 low is unlikely unless oil collapses and the BoC severely diverges from the Fed.

Why is CAD so weak against USD?

Interest rate differentials

• The BoC’s policy rate is now 75 basis points below the Fed’s, a differential that has historically pushed USD/CAD higher (FXStreet (forex news)).
• According to TD Economics via Trading Economics (economic data provider), further BoC easing could push the pair toward 1.40.

Oil price correlation

• Canada is a net oil exporter, so a drop in crude prices typically weighs on the CAD. Currently, WTI oil is around $75, down from $95 in 2022 (Trading Economics (economic data provider)).
• The correlation coefficient between oil and USD/CAD is roughly -0.7 — strong and inverse: when oil falls, USD/CAD rises.
• Recent OPEC+ supply increases have suppressed oil prices, adding to the CAD’s weakness.

Economic performance

• Canada’s GDP growth lagged the US in 2024-2025, with the Canadian economy expanding at 1.2% versus 2.8% for the US (FXStreet (forex news)).
• Productivity gaps and a housing market slowdown have dampened investor sentiment toward the loonie.

The implication: Until Canada’s economic growth outpaces the US or oil prices rally substantially, the CAD will remain under pressure.

Why does Trump want a weaker dollar?

Trade balance motives

• President Trump has consistently argued that a weaker US dollar boosts American exports by making them cheaper on global markets (Firstpost Tech & Trade (news outlet)).
• A weaker dollar also reduces the trade deficit, which Trump sees as a key metric of economic success.

Effect on exports

• US manufacturing firms benefit from a weaker dollar, but Canadian competitors face margin compression.
• Retaliatory tariffs could further complicate the USD/CAD relationship.

Impact on USD/CAD

• A unilateral push for a weaker dollar would directly reverse the interest-rate-driven strength the USD has enjoyed.
• If Trump’s policies succeed, USD/CAD could fall below 1.30, as CoinCodex (crypto/forex forecast platform) reportedly projects for end of 2026.
• However, the Bank of Canada’s independence and Canada’s commodity exposure mean the CAD might not strengthen as much as the dollar weakens.

The trade-off: A weaker dollar is a double-edged sword for Canada — it lowers import costs but squeezes export margins, especially in manufacturing and tourism.

What is the prediction for the US dollar to Canadian dollar?

Analyst forecasts for 2025-2026

Here is how leading analysts see the pair moving in the near term.

The range is wide: most established sources see the pair settling between 1.35 and 1.40, while CoinCodex’s more bullish CAD forecast stands at 1.30. The pattern: The divergence reflects uncertainty over Trump’s dollar policy and oil price direction.

Key factors to watch

• Bank of Canada rate decisions — further cuts could push USD/CAD above 1.40.
• Oil price trends — a sustained drop below $70 would hurt CAD.
• US trade policy — tariffs or a weaker-dollar directive from the White House.
• Global risk appetite — as a commodity currency, CAD tends to weaken in risk-off periods.

Why this matters: For anyone converting currencies — whether for travel, business, or investment — the next 12 months hinge on these three variables more than on any single chart pattern.

Timeline signal

Four milestones that shaped the USD/CAD relationship over two decades:

“Scotiabank projects USD/CAD to trade around 1.35 by end of 2025.”

Scotiabank (bank) via Trading Economics (economic data provider)

“Trump’s rationale for a weaker dollar could widen the trade deficit with Canada.”

Firstpost Tech & Trade (news outlet)

For Canadian exporters, the choice is clear: hedge against a stronger CAD or face shrinking margins on US sales. For travelers and investors, the next six months offer a window of favorable USD buying before policy shifts potentially reverse the trend.

For a detailed look at current market conditions, check the USD to CAD exchange rate today page for live rates and forecasts.

Frequently asked questions