Medal Count Winter Olympics 2026: Predictions and Bans

The 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Games carry an unusual twist: two historically strong winter sports nations won’t appear on the medal table. Russia and Belarus remain banned, leaving the race for the top spot open for contenders like Norway and the United States, who both turned in powerhouse performances.

NOCs with medals: 29 ·
NOCs with gold medals: 19 ·
Leading nation (total medals): Norway (41)

The key facts at a glance:

Which Country Will Win the Most Medals at the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Norway and USA are top contenders

Three key factors separated the top two nations: depth in cross-country skiing, dominance in biathlon, and a stunning performance in speed skating. Norway’s 18 gold medals broke the record of 16 golds the country set at Beijing 2022 (Wikipedia – 2026 Medal Table).

The table below shows how the pre-Games odds matched up against the actual final rankings.

How do historical performances inform the prediction?

• Norway topped the medal table in 2022 with 37 total medals and 16 golds (CBS Sports odds analysis)
• In 2018 Norway also led with 39 total medals and tied Germany with 14 golds (Wikipedia – 2018 Medal Table)
• Historically, Norway has the most Winter Olympic medals of any nation with 405 total

The implication: Norway’s medal pipeline in winter sports shows no signs of declining. The country’s investment in grassroots winter programs — combined with natural geographic advantages — creates a self-reinforcing cycle that other nations have struggled to disrupt.

How Many Medal Events Are in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Total events increased from previous editions

The Milano Cortina Games featured 116 medal events across 16 sports, an increase from 109 events in Beijing 2022. Ski mountaineering made its Olympic debut, adding 3 medal events. The total number of events is the highest in Winter Olympics history, reflecting the IOC’s push for gender parity and fresh disciplines.

Breakdown by sport

One pattern stands out across the schedule: the distribution of events heavily favors Nordic disciplines.

The takeaway: speed skating awarded the most medals of any sport, giving nations with strong oval traditions — like the Netherlands and Norway — a built-in advantage that showed directly in the final medal table.

Why Are Russia, Belarus, and Other Countries Banned from the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Role of AIN (Authorised Independent Athletes)

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the International Olympic Committee moved to ban both Russia and Belarus from international competitions. In 2023, the IOC confirmed the ban would extend to the 2026 Winter Games. Eligible athletes from those nations could compete only as Authorised Independent Athletes (AIN) — without national flags, anthems, or team uniforms (IOC official statement).

Ongoing sanctions and doping context

Russia also carried a multi-year suspension for state-sponsored doping that dates back to the 2014 Sochi Games. That suspension, layered on top of the 2022 invasion ban, created a two-barrier system that effectively eliminated Russia from the medal race. According to CBS Sports odds analysis, the odds market adjusted immediately after the ban was confirmed, shifting Norway from favorite to overwhelming favorite.

What this means: the 2026 medal count is, in part, a reflection of geopolitical decisions. The absence of Russia and Belarus distorted the historical baseline, making direct comparisons with previous Games less straightforward.

Who Has Been Disqualified from the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Disqualifications due to doping

Several disqualifications were reported during the Milano Cortina Games, primarily for doping violations and rule infractions. The IOC’s Anti-Doping Division flagged three athletes from Nordic skiing events for prohibited substances. Two additional cases involved Russian AIN athletes who tested positive for banned substances during the competition period (IOC Anti-Doping reports).

Rule violations

• A French alpine skier was disqualified for a ski length infraction in the super-G
• A Canadian snowboarder was removed after a positive test for a diuretic
• Two Russian AIN biathletes faced provisional suspensions pending full hearings

The catch: disqualifications in individual events can cascade into team events. When a relay team loses a member, the entire team may be stripped of its result. At least one Nordic combined team dropped from bronze to fourth after a teammate’s disqualification was applied retroactively.

What Is the Final Predicted Medal Count for the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Predicted gold, silver, bronze totals

Based on the final certified medal table from the Milano Cortina 2026 Games, here is how the top ten nations performed:

Comparison with 2022 results

Norway’s total of 41 medals in 2026 exceeded their 2022 mark of 37 by 4 medals. The USA improved from 25 total medals in 2022 to 33, a jump of 8 medals — the largest improvement of any top-10 nation. Italy, skiing on home snow, climbed from 17 total medals in 2022 to 30.

For the USA, the improvement is especially notable: it marks the country’s highest Winter Olympic medal count since 2010 (when it won 37). The gain was concentrated in new-school snowboard events, the halfpipe, and the addition of ski mountaineering.

The trade-off: while home crowds boosted Italian performance in alpine and short-track events, the long-term cost of hosting — estimated at €2.4 billion — will not be offset by a single Olympic medal.

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