What Countries Will Be in World War 3? Expert Predictions

Ask any group of defence analysts where the next world war might flare up and you’ll get a dozen different answers. The honest one: nobody knows for certain, but the scenarios are getting more specific. An Atlantic Council survey found that 40% of respondents expect a world war by 2035—one that could go nuclear and extend to space. This article maps what expert risk indices and geopolitical analyses actually say about which countries would likely fight, which would likely stay out, and what that distinction means for anyone paying attention to these questions.

Highlighted Countries: United States, Russia, China ·
War Risk Source: Penn Global – University of Pennsylvania ·
Safest Country: Ireland ·
Key Alliances: NATO vs. Russia-aligned bloc (Russia, Iran)

The key findings cluster around three major belligerents, one major safety index, and a set of timeline signals that analysts say are worth monitoring.

What countries are most likely to be in WWIII?

When analysts look at who would most likely be drawn into a global conflict, three names consistently surface: the United States, Russia, and China. These are the powers with the military reach, the alliance structures, and the strategic interests that could pull them into a multi-front confrontation that goes beyond regional war.

United States

• The US anchors NATO and maintains Pacific alliances with Japan, South Korea, and Australia
• 79% of respondents predicting WW3 in the Atlantic Council survey believe China will forcibly retake Taiwan, a scenario that would directly engage US forces (Atlantic Council)
• US Naval Institute outlined a “War of 2026” scenario exploring great-power naval conflict implications (US Naval Institute)

Russia

• Russia ranks as the least peaceful country in the Global Peace Index 2025, followed by Ukraine, Sudan, DRC, and Yemen (Vision of Humanity)
• 45% of Atlantic Council respondents agree Russia-NATO direct conflict is likely in the next decade, rising to 69% among those who predict WW3 (Atlantic Council)
• Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk has warned of a “real risk” of war in the current European context (Mira Safety)
• Russia and China have expanded icebreaker operations in the Arctic, prompting NATO responses (late 2024) (Mira Safety)

China

• China is identified as the primary flashpoint trigger: 79% of respondents predicting WW3 believe China will forcibly retake Taiwan by 2035 (Atlantic Council)
• China is part of a potential adversary bloc alongside Russia, Iran, and North Korea, according to 62% of Atlantic Council respondents (Atlantic Council)
• The US has explicitly committed to Taiwan’s defence, making this a direct US-China flashpoint

Which country will be the safest in World War III?

Not all countries sit in the blast radius. Analysts at the Institute for Economics and Peace identified 11 places that offer the best odds—characterised by political neutrality, geographic isolation, and limited strategic value that makes them unattractive targets.

Ireland and European neutral nations

• Ireland consistently ranks among the world’s safest countries across multiple analyses, with a combination of geographic isolation, NATO-distance, and no recent military entanglements
• Switzerland has maintained formal neutrality since the 19th century, operates extensive nuclear shelter infrastructure, and declined to assist Ukraine—itself a defining act of neutrality (Economic Times)
• Iceland ranks first on the Global Peace Index, has never been involved in a modern war, and holds so little strategic value that it has been called a “non-target” (Economic Times)

Southern Hemisphere isolation

• New Zealand ranks second on the Global Peace Index, with neutral status, self-sufficient agriculture, and its Southern Hemisphere location providing geographic insulation from Northern Hemisphere conflicts (Economic Times)
• Chile is isolated by the Andes and Pacific Ocean, resource-rich, and not part of any military bloc (Economic Times)
• Fiji has a small military of just 6,000 soldiers and consistently scores well on peace indices, making it an unlikely target (Economic Times)
• Bhutan declared neutrality in 1971 upon UN membership and its mountainous geography provides natural defence (Economic Times)

Extreme remoteness

• Antarctica is uninhabited except for research stations, making it an extreme but genuinely low-probability target (Economic Times)
• Greenland is remote, has a minimal population, and holds limited strategic targets—though US interest in it as a potential Arctic base complicates the picture (Dagens)
• Tuvalu, with a population of 11,000 and limited infrastructure, is considered an unattractive target precisely because it has so little worth seizing (Economic Times)

What countries are most at risk for war?

Risk indices and expert surveys identify specific countries and regions where the probability of involvement in a major conflict is highest. These tend to be nations sitting at the intersection of major power interests, alliance commitments, or active territorial disputes.

Penn Global war risk index

• The Penn Global War Index, produced by the University of Pennsylvania, tracks countries with the highest exposure to escalating conflict scenarios
• Countries at the top of the risk list typically share two characteristics: proximity to major power flashpoints and active military commitments that would require direct participation in a global conflict

Current flashpoints

• Taiwan remains the highest-probability trigger: 79% of Atlantic Council respondents who predict WW3 believe China will move on Taiwan by 2035 (Atlantic Council)
• The Arctic has emerged as a secondary flashpoint, with Russia and China expanding icebreaker operations and NATO responding with increased deployments (Mira Safety)
• BlackRock’s Geopolitical Risk Dashboard rates Middle East regional war as “High” risk, with the February 28, 2025 US/Israel “Epic Fury” operation killing Iran’s Supreme Leader marking a dramatic escalation (BlackRock)
• Hezbollah rockets into Israel triggering Lebanese airstrikes demonstrates how secondary actors can drag larger powers into wider conflicts

Is there going to be a World War III or not?

This is the question that sits behind all the others, and the honest expert answer is: it depends on what decisions are made in the next few years. The scenarios are real. The probability is non-trivial. But it is not inevitable.

Expert views

• Historian and former US diplomat Philip Zelikow assigned a 20–30% probability to worldwide warfare and warned of a “period of maximum danger” within the next one to three years from a 2024 survey (Atlantic Council)
• Forty percent of Atlantic Council respondents expect a world war by 2035—potentially nuclear and extending to space (Atlantic Council)
• Forty-eight percent expect nuclear weapons to be used in the next decade; 45% expect conflict in space (Atlantic Council)
• Other analysts reportedly predict that WW3 is not inevitable in the next 5–10 years, with outcomes dependent on US-China-Russia diplomacy (Mira Safety)

Current tensions

• The BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Dashboard rates Middle East regional war as “High” risk following the February 28, 2025 “Epic Fury” strike (BlackRock)
• Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk has warned of a “real risk” of war in the 2025 European context (Mira Safety)
• The Global Peace Index 2025 lists Russia as the least peaceful country globally, followed by Ukraine, Sudan, DRC, and Yemen—five countries where active conflict directly undermines global stability (Vision of Humanity)

What will happen if World War III starts?

Speculating on outcomes is inherently uncertain, but the expert frameworks give a clearer picture than popular imagination suggests. The answer depends heavily on which scenario triggers the conflict and whether it stays conventional or goes nuclear.

Potential scenarios

• China-Taiwan scenario: US involvement is considered near-certain given explicit defence commitments, and Japan and South Korea would likely be drawn in given their own alliance structures
• Russia-NATO scenario: 45% of Atlantic Council respondents rate this as likely in the next decade, with escalation to nuclear use rated at 48% (Atlantic Council)
• Naval conflict scenario: US Naval Institute outlined a hypothetical “War of 2026” exploring the implications of great-power naval confrontation in the Pacific (US Naval Institute)
• Space conflict: 45% of respondents expect conflict in space to accompany any major power war (Atlantic Council)

Survival considerations

• The Global Peace Index identifies two key factors that correlate with survival odds: political neutrality and geographic isolation (Dagens)
• Analysts at the Institute for Economics and Peace identified Iceland, New Zealand, Switzerland, Bhutan, Chile, Fiji, Indonesia, Argentina, Greenland, and Antarctica as places with the structural characteristics that reduce target value (Dagens)
• The limiting case: a full-scale nuclear exchange collapses survival differences across geographies, making any location a matter of infrastructure resilience rather than strategic position

How experts view the probability

Two distinct frameworks have emerged from the expert community. One quantifies probability directly; the other focuses on structural risk factors that make conflict more or less likely.

“Forty percent of respondents expect a world war in the next decade—one that could go nuclear and extend to space.”

— Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series, 2025

“Philip Zelikow assigned a 20 to 30 percent probability to the prospect of ‘worldwide warfare’ and warned of a ‘period of maximum danger’ within the next one to three years.”

— Philip Zelikow, historian and former US diplomat

“Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned of a ‘real risk’ of war in the current European context.”

— Donald Tusk, Poland Prime Minister

The pattern that emerges across these assessments is not a prediction of inevitability—it is a calibration of elevated risk. The United States, Russia, and China are the actors most likely to be in a WW3 scenario, not because they want it, but because their alliance commitments and strategic interests leave them no clean exit if a trigger fires. For anyone evaluating where the risk is highest, the answer is not a list of countries—it is a set of decisions, with Taiwan and NATO Article 5 at the top of the critical choices that determine whether the next decade stays in the realm of elevated tension or crosses into something categorically different.

Related reading: Canada Grocery Rebate 2025 Eligibility

Beyond identifying likely participants like the US and Russia, experts also scrutinize WW3 start date predictionsWW3 start date predictions amid escalating global tensions.

Frequently asked questions